Thor Wild-Bell

Quote of the week

“Look where others aren’t.”
— Seth Klarman

Inversion
Start with how this fails, then design so those paths are closed.
Circle of Competence
Know what you actually know — and stay inside it when downside is real.
Occam’s Razor
Prefer the simple explanation when it still fits the facts.

Second-Order Thinking
Effects have effects — the second move often matters most.
Opportunity Cost
Every yes is a no to something else. Price it.
Margin of Safety
Build room for being wrong before you need it.
Mr. Market
Markets have moods; use them, don’t marry them.
Probabilistic Thinking
Assign odds. Don’t demand certainty.
Bayes / Updating
Change your mind when the evidence changes.
Falsification
Prefer beliefs you could prove wrong.
Hanlon’s Razor
Don’t assume malice when error is enough.
Map Is Not the Territory
The model is useful and incomplete. Don’t confuse it with reality.
Incentives
Show me the incentives; I’ll show you the behaviour.
Skin in the Game
Trust people who share the downside.
Compounding
Small edges, kept long, beat clever bursts.
Leverage
Find points where a small input moves a large system.
Activation Energy
The hard part is often starting. Design for that.
Feedback Loops
Build systems that tell you the truth early.
Via Negativa
Often improve by removing what doesn’t work.
Regret Minimisation
Prefer the choice you’ll respect in ten years.

I invest and operate at the intersection of financial institutions, technology, and complex markets.

Guinness World Record — fastest stage swim around Kauai.